However if we look at the trend, month on month from November industrial output at constant prices decreased in December 2007 by 3.2% on the month, on a seasonally adjusted basis (seasonal and working day influence is taken into account). There was a monthly 1.7% decrease in mining and quarrying, a 1.8% one in manufacturing, and a 7.3% one in electricity, gas and water supply. So the picture is that manufacturing continues to decline, while the novelty is that output in mining, quarrying, electricity, gas and water are now also falling.If we add to this the likelihood of negative growth in retail sales, and no significant increase in government spending (ex EU grants) then it is hard to see where GDP growth is likely to come from as we move forward. Certainly we are a long way away from an export lead growth process at this point, and something will need to be done about relative prices if this is to become possible.
Looking at the charts we are still in the process of falling steadily off the roof, and if the degree of slope is anything to go by, we aren't falling slowly, in fact our rate of descent has just accelerated.
The details below which come from the statistics office are interesting since they give some idea of the distribution of the slowdown.
Compared to December 2006 industrial output in manufacturing of food products and beverages decreased by 14.8%, of which in manufacture of other food products (bread, confectionery, sugar) – by 36.1%, dairy products – by 11.2%, meat and meat products – by 6.8%, beverages – by 5%. Within the food product group only production in processing and preserving of fruit and vegetables and in processing and preserving of fish and fish products grew, by 28.8% and 11.8%, respectively.
Compared to December 2006 output increased in manufacturing fabricated metal products (except machinery and equipment) – by 56.1%, in manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers – by 11.1%, in manufacturing of basic metals – by 5.9% and in manufacture of pulp, paper and paper products – by 5%, but the most notable industrial production output decrease was recorded in manufacturing of rubber and plastic products – by 19.3%, in manufacture of non-metallic mineral products (manufacture of glass, ceramics, cement, concrete, brick, etc.) – by 18.6%, in manufacturing of chemicals, chemical products and man-made fibres – by 18.2%, in manufacturing of furniture; manufacturing not classified otherwise – by 15.5%, in manufacture of radio, television and communication equipment and apparatus – by 15.1%, in manufacturing of wearing apparel – by 14.9%, in publishing, printing and reproduction of recorded media – by 13.2%, in manufacturing of other transport equipment (repairing and construction of ships and boats) – by 10.9%, in manufacture of machinery and equipment – by 10.7%.
On an annual basis - compared to 2006 - industrial output in 2007 increased by 0.5%, of which mining and quarrying by 13.7%, electricity, gas and water supply by 4.2%, while industrial output in manufacturing decreased by 1%.
In 2007 increases were recorded in the manufacture of fabricated metal products, (except machinery and equipment) —by 19.4%, in manufacturing of rubber and plastic products – by – 13.6%, in manufacture of electrical machinery and apparatus - by 10.6%, in manufacture of pulp, paper and paper products – by 9.5%.
The most significant industrial output decreases were recorded in the manufacture of radio, television and communication equipment and apparatus – by 19.9%, in manufacture of wood and wood products – by 5.8%, in manufacture of machinery and equipment – by 6.8%, in manufacturing of furniture; manufacturing not classified otherwise – by 5.1%, n manufacturing of wearing apparel – by 4.5%.
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